See, there are a number of factors that reveal why strict NRA membership is a poor measure of pro-gun sentiment. First, there are several groups active at the local, state, and federal level. For many with a limited income, they will often choose the most local organization they can for their membership dollars. Others feel that local or state issues take priority, and may focus their attention on those groups even though NRA is often involved at those levels as well. Second, NRA membership fluctuates between more than 3 million and a little less than 5 million at any given time. As people feel their gun rights are threatened, they tend to step up their involvement. When they get comfortable, they step back from the fight instead of helping us push for more progress on the issue. However, more than 30 million people actually believe they are members of the NRA. This comes from confusion that taking a training course certified by the NRA makes them a member for life or believing that signing up for one year is good for life.

The people who believe they are members of NRA even if their membership is lapsed still look to NRA endorsements and other information from the group about what is happening to their gun rights. They may get it from magazines left at their gun club, email alerts, or updates from their local sportsmen’s club newsletters. They still matter at election time because their votes can be swayed on matters of our Second Amendment rights, yet they would not turn up in a count of strict & current NRA members.

In Pennsylvania, we can use another number to indicate interest in firearms freedom when talking to our local politicians. It’s still far from a perfect number, but it’s relevant nonetheless. We can look to concealed carry licenses issued in each county to give them insight into how many constituents are weighing a politician’s support of our rights. No, the numbers don’t recognize actual gun owners in a county, but they are a representation of gun owners who care about the issues of personal protection and the shooting sports enough to undergo extra background checks and expenses.

In Bucks County, we can use the data reported to the State Police and add up each of the last five years available to give an approximate number. Right now, it shows that more 26,000 citizens have licenses to carry in the county. When you factor in sportsmen’s firearms permits which are very uncommon, it still adds nearly 1,000 more people to the number.

Even if we know that there are far more gun owners than that in the area, no politician representing the area will want to risk making nearly 27,000 voters upset enough to vote for a primary challenger or challenger from another party. For those challenged by anti-rights candidates, there are still enough votes on the line that they want a record that gives gun owners a bit of extra inspiration to come out to the polls.

For those of you who want to do the calculations for your own county, you can download reports back to 1999 from this site. Remember, the last five years of data is the more up-to-date number.

David Keene, the recently elected President of the National Rifle Association, sat down with Washington Journal to discuss the NRA’s role in elections past and present. With callers chiming in, the topics ranged from current efforts to ban magazines, which players already on the field for 2012 have records supporting the Second Amendment, and what role women play in the nation’s oldest civil rights organization.

You will hear from NRA Officers and NRA-ILA Staff on what you can do locally to defend our Second Amendment rights.  We will provide you with the materials and strategies you will need to educate and empower your fellow gun owners.

Your attendance at this year’s NRA-ILA Grassroots Workshop in Pittsburgh is a critical step toward ensuring the future of our gun rights.  This Workshop has been a staple of NRA’s Annual Meetings, and is one of the most popular events of the week, attended by hundreds of freedom-loving NRA members.

FREE NRA-ILA Grassroots Workshop
Friday, April 29, 2011, 9:00 a.m.
(Registration and free continental breakfast from 8:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.)
Allegheny Ballrooms 2&3, The Westin Convention Center Pittsburgh
1000 Penn Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15222

For more information, please contact the NRA-ILA Grassroots Division at (800) 392-VOTE (8683), or click here to sign up for the NRA-ILA Grassroots Workshop.

There is no better time to prepare for success for the inevitable battles we will face than while we are in Pittsburgh!  Please encourage your family, friends, and fellow firearm owners to attend as well!

Nearly half of all voters (44 percent) say they listened for the NRA’s message all, most, or some of the time. …

A sizeable 42 percent of independents also listened for the message of the NRA.

Among those who attend church weekly, … a 57 percent majority say they listened for the NRA’s message.

…a very strong majority of tea party voters (76 percent) say they listened for the NRA’s message.

[Among small business owners,] 53 percent majority said they listened for NRA’s message as well.

“These numbers show that the tea party and the NRA were the two major voices that influenced voter opinion in the midterm elections,” said Brad O’Leary, publisher of The O’Leary Report.

According to the report, more than two thousand voters were polled and the margin of error is approximately 2 points.

Rob Ciervo HAS been endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund, and his opponent decided to vote against gun owners & self-defense advocates on every single vote of his (hopefully) short legislative career. He is running to represent Newtown, Yardley, Lower Makefield & parts of Upper Makefield in State House District 31. Incumbent Rep. Santarsiero’s grade is now a D, and he has run to anti-gun groups seeking their support for his campaign. Gun owners in and around this area can support Rob Ciervo’s campaign by visiting his website.

Tommy Tomlinson running for re-election to Senate District 6 is now rated B+ and is NOT endorsed by the NRA Political Victory Fund. His recent vote to restrict the reciprocity agreements of concealed carry license holders was an unexpected vote against gun owners in Southeast Pennsylvania. If you’d like to contact Sen. Tomlinson and ask him why he voted against sportsmen in his district, his office number is (717) 787-5072 and his email address is rtomlinson@pasen.gov.

Here are all of the endorsed candidates on ballots in Bucks County & the rest of Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional district:

Federal
US Senate – Pat Toomey
Congress – Mike Fitzpatrick

State
Governor – Tom Corbett

State House

• Marguerite Quinn
• Frank Farry
• Rob Ciervo
• Paul Clymer
• Gene DiGirolamo

State Senate

• Chuck McIlhinney

Tuesday, September 28
Three rallies with Pat Toomey will be hosted around the state. The Senate seat will be absolutely vital in the event President Obama tries to appoint another anti-gun justice to the Supreme Court in coming years. Joe Sestak refused to even concede that guns can be used for self-defense in a debate earlier this year, so he will not be a friend to gun owners in the US Senate. We must unite behind Pat Toomey to make sure our rights are defended!

9:00 a.m.
Green Tree Volunteer Fire company
825 Poplar St
Pittsburgh, PA 15220-2827

12:00 p.m.
Clarks Summit Ramada
820 Northern Blvd
Clarks Summit, PA 18411

3:00 p.m.
Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW)
4800 W Market St
York, PA 17408

No RSVP is required for these three events.

Thursday, September 30
In preparation for the 2010 elections, NRA-ILA has hired Campaign Field Representatives who are working in key states to recruit and mobilize pro-gun volunteers. As part of this grassroots plan, NRA will host “Volunteer Kick-Off” meetings, featuring CFRs and ILA Grassroots Headquarters staff.

6:00 P.M.
Lower Providence Rod & Gun Club
2857 Egypt Road
Audubon, PA 19407

RSVP here.

Between the 5-4 decision in the McDonald case and the confirmation hearings on the nomination of Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court this week, this commentary from Sarah Palin at last month’s NRA Annual Meeting is a reminder that gun owners cannot afford to sit out of any elections.

But showing up a your polling place isn’t enough if you really have the drive to win. We must get involved with campaigns. It’s not a particularly challenging task, nor does it have to be hugely time-consuming.

Giving just a couple of hours a month to make phone calls to registered voters will give you the power to reach hundreds of families who can turn up on Election Day to vote for your candidate. Knocking on doors for just a couple of hours a month will reach dozens of voters who will be left with a reminder that real people – some of their neighbors – are dedicated enough to support the right candidates on the ballot. If you’ve got special skills, such as web design experience, you could offer to help out smaller campaigns by plugging holes that their campaign coffers are not yet big enough to fill.

But even if you have no time or money to dedicate to pro-gun candidates, make sure you show up on Election Day. Tell your friends and family. Remember that elections do matter.

I figured that a title about campaign finance reform wouldn’t grab too many eyeballs. But telling people about the intended result of this “reform” probably would. I’ve been thinking about this post for a while now, but decided that Dave Kopel’s release of his June First Freedom article on the subject made the issue more relevant for the blog.

There is one key to the Schumer-backed DISCLOSE Act that makes it dangerous for gun owners who want to organize in any meaningful manner: disclosure of all donors/members whose money may have funded independent expenditures to the FEC.

According to The New York Times, a “reform” bill might require advocacy groups (such as NRA) “to identify all their financial donors or set up separate accounts to handle political spending and identify the donors to that account.”

Simply put: If NRA wants to use its general funds from member dues to speak out during election season, then NRA would have to give the federal government a list of every single NRA member.

The FEC donor databases are open to all, and the most user-friendly that makes looking up individuals easy and fast is the database available at OpenSecrets.org. Kopel uses the example that your boss could decide to cross-reference you to find out what you’re up to outside of work hours. At that point, you just have to hope he/she isn’t anti-gun, or you may find yourself in the unemployment line. Even if NRA maintains a separate fund for campaign expenditures, you can’t donate if you value your privacy.

We’re by far not the only issue concerned about these crazy disclosure agreements. The National Right to Life Committee is opposing the bill on the same grounds:

One of those regulations involves NRLC and other pro-life groups having to identify donors publicly anytime it runs communications in certain times that ask people to contact Congress about legislation related to pro-life concerns.

“Our members and supporters have a right to support our public advocacy about important and controversial issues without having their identifying information posted on the Internet, exposing them to harassment or retribution by those who may disagree with their beliefs,” NRLC concluded.

It’s pretty dangerous in some areas of the country to be socially conservative. See the harassment that same-sex marriage opponents faced in California as an exhibit of what pro-lifers – and possibly gun owners – could face.

Even the parts of the bill that aren’t dangerous for gun owners actively try to cut us off at the knees when it comes to political advertising. I’m not opposed to the spirit of an organization head doing a disclaimer as part of a commercial, but as specific as the DISCLOSURE Act is, it limits our options in order to cut our political effectiveness.

NRA advertisements always let you know that they’re paid for by NRA. Sometimes, NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre appears as a spokesman in a commercial, while in others, it’s Chris W. Cox, chairman of NRA’s Political Victory Fund and executive director of NRA-ILA. Sometimes, NRA may choose to use someone else entirely. For example, Charlton Heston appeared in many NRA commercials during his long service to the Second Amendment.

The proposal would mean that in 1997, for example, when Heston— one of the most respected men in America—was an NRA officer but not president or CEO, an NRA commercial would have been required to cut the amount of time that Heston had to speak about the issues.

Anything that reduces the time we can put Chris Cox’s face & voice in front of female viewers is a loss for our issue as far as I’m concerned!

In all seriousness, we have a diverse set of powerful leaders we can choose from at this point, and most Americans would probably agree that using any of them would meet the spirit of any disclosure laws. If Tom Selleck wants to get on screen as an NRA board member and talk about NRA-endorsed candidates or the issues at stake in a particular election, I’m sure most people would agree that it’s plenty transparent.

Politically, Congress still knows we can raise some hell on this issue. The House sponsor sat down with NRA recently to try and figure out their concerns, and they are specifically worried about last minute lobbying blitzes. It would seem that the pro-life groups and the Chamber of Commerce are planning to score the vote – and I suspect that the final product will determine whether or not NRA scores the vote. (If they do, Democrats may lose the votes they claim to have to pass it in the House.)

The Chamber has particular concerns about how this bill favors unions above other corporations:

For example, companies with government contracts worth $50,000 or more and those with foreign ownership would be banned from funding political ads and engaging in other campaign-related activity. The business group believes unions that receive federal grants, have collective bargaining agreements with the government or have international affiliates should be subject to similar limits.

Eugene Scalia, a partner at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher and counsel to the Chamber, said the Disclose Act does not balance restrictions on corporations and unions equally, as previous campaign finance reform bills have.

“This bill is a departure from that tradition,” he said.

This is one of the reasons the NRLC argued the bill name should really stand for “Deterring Independent Speech about Congress except by Labor Organizations and Selected Elites.”

Right now, the bill has been postponed in the House. The committee vote was down party lines, and all efforts to make this bill more fair have been turned down based on party affiliation.

The intentional partisanship and one-sided nature of this was demonstrated by the defeat of a series of amendments in the committee mark-up that were proposed by Republicans. This included an amendment by Rep. Dan Lungren (R., Calif.) that would have extended the prohibition on government contractors to any unions that have representational contracts with the government, as well as an amendment by Rep. Gregg Harper (R., Miss.) that would have extended the same ban to any other recipient of government grants, such as the liberal groups that receive so many federal earmarks and other funds. When Lungren tried to extend the political activity ban on corporations with foreign shareholders or corporate directors to unions that receive dues from foreign nationals, that was also rejected.

This bill has got to go down in defeat. NRA is a one-issue organization, but they also look out for our ability to talk about that issue with the public during election season. Because many people who aren’t paid members receiving the magazine pay attention to NRA’s messaging, any effort to silence their efforts will only hurt gun rights on Election Day.

If you know anyone who is currently serving, make sure they know that NRA members say thanks for everything they do. In fact, NRA has created a special free membership for active duty military, guard, and reservists. These memberships are gifts from other NRA members who want to show their gratitude for all our men and women in uniform do to keep us safe.

If you would like to say thanks by donating a membership to a member of the military, click here.

As of Monday morning, only 3,882 votes define the race. Based on turnout, this difference (unlikely to change much by the deadline for unofficial vote tallies on Tuesday evening) will cause an automatic recount should Saidel demand one. His campaign is not commenting on whether they will force the state to recount the ballots at great expense, but some early statements indicate he will challenge the results. It’s not unexpected since Saidel openly mocked other candidates to reporters and never spent money he raised since he assumed he would win.

While the role of Lt. Governor isn’t the most high-profile, it can make a difference in the races. As this snarky take indicates, it can really change a message:

… experts tell the Tribune-Review that running-mates don’t really have that much of an impact on the fate of gubernatorial candidates.

This story is easier to write if you ignore the fact that Ed Rendell wouldn’t have won in 2002 without Catherine Baker Knoll and also now that Tom Corbett doesn’t have to lie awake at night worrying about campaign signs that might have read: “CORBETT/METCALFE 2010: THE BIPOLAR CHOICE.”

If Saidel can’t make up the votes in a recount, the entire top of the ticket for both parties won’t have a single member of the Philadelphia delegation. The closest will be the GOP Lt. Governor nominee from Bucks County and the Democratic Senate nominee from Delaware County.

At last month’s Right to Keep and Bear Arms Rally, PAFOA not only embraced using Twitter and Facebook as a means of spreading news, but members used coordinated tags to have and track conversations about the events. Using the hashtag #2ARally, gun owners were able to label their live reports so folks at home could track them, and they could find each other in real time and in real life through this new digital medium.

This weekend, that same example will play itself out on a much larger scale at the NRA Annual Meeting in Charlotte, North Carolina. Much like PAFOA, NRA has now set up a Twitter account to make announcements, share news, and stir up the conversation about the event – @AnnualMeetings. In addition, they have embraced a hashtag already used by members, #NRAAM. It will allow members to keep track of what others are doing, seeing, and experiencing on the floor.

In addition, members are organizing a Foursquare swarm for users of the location services social application. By “checking in” using the service, it announces to the user’s closest friends that they are taking part in a massive event – upwards of 80,000 people are predicted to attend this year’s festivities.

Given that the NRA Annual Meeting is a much larger affair than the Right to Keep and Bear Arms Rally, it also makes sense that NRA has finally expanded into mobile technology for users on site to keep up with everything going on. In recent weeks, they have announced both an iPhone app and a mobile Annual Meeting website. With more than 6 acres of exhibit halls and events that span three days, it makes sense to enter into this new arena of technology.

With the NRA bringing their show to Pittsburgh in 2011, the first use of many of these technologies will be a great trial run in Charlotte.

Learning from the defeat of his anti-gun ally in Massachusetts, Obama has decided to activate his political arm early in the 2010 races to avoid seeing another headline-making loss like Martha Coakley in January. It was argued at the time that he didn’t send in support early enough to help turn out voters in the special election. For November, OFA plans to start in June to keep future Scott Brown-style wins from happening around the country.

Looking at the math they presented to supporters earlier this week, it makes sense why they would want to activate their 2008 network again.

They point out that first time voters turn out at much lower levels in midterms than regular voters. They realize that they cannot recreate the excitement and turnout of the historic 2008 election, so they have studied how many of those voters they really need to reach in order to flip elections in Obama’s favor.

Looking at Ohio, and a further subset study of their 15th Congressional District, they found that turning out just 8% more of the first time voters from 2008 would result in an increase of 2 points for their candidate at the polls in November. They just have to find 5,000 extra votes from the 57,000 they registered in the district in 2008.

Using their example of OH-15, they are targeting NRA A rated former Congressman Steve Stivers who is running to take back his old seat. He lost the 2008 election by a mere 2,300 votes out of nearly 304,000 cast – less than .8 points. The momentum of 2010 puts the wind at his back against F rated Congresswoman Mary Jo Kilroy who voted for controversial legislation like health care reform after barely winning the seat. If Obama’s team can boost voter turnout for anti-gun Kilroy by 2 points, her seat is safer than it otherwise might be in a year of anti-incumbent attitudes.

In Pennsylvania, there are more competitive seats than any other state in the nation. In some areas, the incumbents are supportive of the Second Amendment. If OFA manages to increase turnout in these tight elections, they could swing these seats to anti-gun candidates. In other races, the fighting challengers are the pro-gun voices, and Obama’s team will drag out every vote they can to keep their anti-gun leaders in office.

If you’re ready to help us turn out the vote for pro-gun candidates, sign up with your local Election Volunteer Coordinator so we can let you know about the opportunities in your area.

We announced the effort on Twitter today, and now is your chance to join in the vote:

You can also “like” us on Facebook to get updates right in your stream – we’ll publish photos as soon as we can share them.

If you can’t make it down to the Capitol today, please take a moment to contact your lawmakers and let them know you’re with us in spirit and want to see Castle Doctrine moved through the House and Senate. Remind them that for every one gun owner who could turn out, there are thousands more supporting the rally from home or the office, and we’ll remember their action come November.

Jonathan Jenkins, whose campaign for the State House we recently profiled, is asking volunteers from any corner of the state to contact his campaign and either phone bank from home or help prepare mailings to voters in the district. He has created scripts and phone bank lists that can be downloaded, as well as a print-at-home mailer.

Gubernatorial candidate Sam Rohrer has also added a call from home service to his campaign website. Register with his campaign, download a guide, and start dialing if you want to help Rep. Rohrer run for the state’s top office.

During the 2008 presidential campaign, both major candidates featured at home phone banking software for supporters. Long after phone bank hours ended in Pennsylvania, supporters could log on and dial into other competitive states in the West to squeeze in a couple extra hours of volunteer time. Dozens of households and hundreds of voters can be reached by an active phone banker in an hour. Allowing them to take part for a few more hours each week or continue working even when the weather is bad or they don’t have time to make the drive to a campaign center meant that campaigns had near limitless possibilities in reaching new voters.

As resources are condensed after the primary in May, it is likely that more campaigns will turn to campaign from home tools. When they do, we’ll make sure to keep you informed. Even if the rain keeps you indoors, today’s technology can keep you connected and active.

Week 4
Jim Gerlach
Congressman Jim Gerlach has been targeted by many groups to try and flip this A rated seat to less friendly opposition. The seat leans Democratic by voter registration, so it will draw many outside groups who want to defeat this Republican Congressman. In fact, out-of-state groups have been airing attack ads throughout the Philadelphia-area media markets consistently since last year.

On gun rights issues, Congressman Gerlach has been working on our behalf recently, including signing on to a brief in the McDonald case to support the incorporation of the Second Amendment. With major political initiatives from President Obama’s agenda likely to take the back burner after the elections, we need to make sure that gun rights don’t become a target in Congress. Representative Gerlach will make sure we’re protected in Washington, DC.
Contribute ** Volunteer

Since those early years online, any time anti-gun advocates try to delete arguments to their positions, it is said that a case of Reasoned Discourse™ has broken out.

Well, today we’re profiling a case of the Reasoned Discourse™ that has spread to an anti-hunting organization holding events in the real world. The Humane Society of the United States – the largest anti-hunting & anti-agriculture organization in the country – is targeting farmers in Iowa with various policy proposals to end the practice of keeping animals in pens & cages. However, when media outlets that focus on the agriculture industry showed up to their press conference to ask questions, HSUS blocked them from the room.

Thanks to the speed of social media, the featured photo was taken and shared by reporters who might ask tough questions and were barred from the press conference. It appeared on our radar courtesy of HumaneWatch & the Iowa Farm Bureau.

We know that Reasoned Discourse™ has been known to break out at press conferences by anti-gun groups, too. When the poorly named American Hunters & Shooters Association held a press conference alongside the NRA Annual Meeting & Exhibits in St. Louis in 2007, former NFL Redskins offensive lineman Ray Schoenke grabbed NRA News reporter Ginny Simone to physically remove her from the event.

As activists, we have a chance to spread the truth about what these organizations are doing to try and shut down conversation about their efforts to ban our favorite pastimes. Spread the word about their dirty tactics through social media websites such as Facebook and Twitter. If you attend a rally or protest and witness this type of thuggery, take a video, snap a photo, or simply document your experience online. Pro-gun blogger Instapundit – a law professor and gadget geek from Tennessee – recommends always having a digital camera on you in case you witness something newsworthy.

Week 3
Jim Wansacz
With a six-way Democratic primary in an overwhelmingly Democratic district, we have a chance to put a pro-gun leader into higher office. Representative Jim Wansacz has been a consistent friend to the Second Amendment and sportsmen around his district during his decade in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. On the other hand, one of his biggest opponents, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty, has endorsed a bigger wish list of gun control than the Brady Campaign has even tried to push in Pennsylvania. He vowed to work to end preemption across the state, which would make carry permits worthless and even put hunters in danger of breaking dozens of gun laws as they drive from their homes to the tree stand. In addition, Doherty would put limits on how many guns we would even be able to buy in the first place.

This race is to replace a longtime friend to gun owners, Senator Bob Mellow. We should make sure to fill the seat with a candidate who respects our rights and won’t work with anti-gun groups to pass legislation that faced massive opposition even in New Jersey! Rep. Wansacz deserves our united support in his competitive primary race.
Contribute ** Volunteer

We’d also like to let you know that the full candidate page will be updated in coming weeks. While we have already examined most of the races in our districts, there are still a few outstanding candidate petition challenges waiting to be heard by the courts. These cases should be wrapped up by next Friday. When decisions have been issued for all of the candidates on the May ballot, we will post the final list on the page at that time. The list will also be updated after winners of the May primary are announced.

Please understand that NRA does not typically get involved in primary races, and usually the candidate grades are not issued until later in the year. However, we will try to make note when candidates have previously held the NRA endorsement and any notes about known actions since the last endorsement that may or may not influence future grades and decisions.

Since this website is maintained by only 3 of Pennsylvania’s 14 EVCs, we will not have a full list of statewide candidates. However, we will have all candidates from our regions, along with key races in the rest of state.

The chart above reflects the number of search results for the phrase “repeal the __ amendment” for each and every amendment in the US Constitution. This chart only measures the prevalence of such statements on the internet, and may not represent the sentiment you might assume.

Another consideration for these results is that the supporters of various amendments may be writing about efforts to repeal specific amendments and want to mobilize to stop it. Clearly, we hope that is the case with the Second Amendment!